Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) headed by Prof. Attahiru Jega on Monday, April 18, 2011 declared incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, winner of Saturday’s presidential election. Jonathan polled 22, 495,187 (58.89%) to beat General Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) who polled 12,214,853 (31.98%), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) got 2,079,151 votes (5.41%) . Mallan Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) scored 917,012 votes (4.40%). The remaining 17 presidential candidates got zero percent.
President Jonathan fulfilled the constitutional requirements of scoring majority of the votes cast and won 25% in 31 states which is more than the constitutional requirement of two thirds of the states which equals 24 states. What is astonishing in the presidential and National Assembly election is the sophistication of Nigerian voters in various parts of the country. In the National Assembly election, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) swept most senatorial and National Assembly seats in Southwestern parts of Nigeria (Yoruba land) to the extent that former president Obasanjo’s daughter, Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello lost her senatorial seat in Ogun State. President Obasanjo and her daughter lost the polling station in front of his mansion. But in presidential election, President Goodluck Jonathan swept all Southwestern states except Osun state won by Nuhu Ribadu of ACN. Voters’ ability to go back and forth shows voters are voting mainly for individual candidates rather than party.
In the Southeastern states (Igbo land) Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won most Senate and House of Representative seats, a feat they repeated in presidential election. All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) which is a party formed by an Igbo icon, Ikemba of Nnewi , Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu lost badly in Southeastern states which is a further confirmation that voters are voting for individual candidates and not necessarily party affiliation.
In South-South region where Jonathan hails from, he won overwhelming majority in presidential election. His party won overwhelming majority in senatorial and House of Representative election which can be attributed to Jonathan being a native son. Also PDP have always been strong in South-South region.
In North Central States, PDP won majority of the votes and seats in Senatorial, House of Representative and presidential election. Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) headed by Buhari made headway in North Central states but performed below expectation. PDP won majority in North central states. Since north central is part of the north, some people thought that CPC will win majority of the seats in both elections, but voters proved the pundits and naysayers wrong by voting for individual candidates rather than party affiliation or region.
In northwest, PDP lost badly to CPC in presidential election but won most House of Representative and senate seats. PDP even lost Kaduna state where Jonathan’s vice presidential candidate, Namadi Sambo hails from, he even lost in his polling station. Who would have thought something like that would happen in Nigeria? Again voters made it clear that they are voting for individuals and not party.
In northeast, CPC trounced PDP again in presidential election by winning overwhelming majority of the vote. Buhari performed better than expected. Jonathan performance was below expectation. Again, voters voted for individuals not party.
Voting pattern in various parts of the country so far shows that this election is the most free and fair in Nigeria. Chairman of INEC, Professor Jega was largely responsible for the conduct of the best election in Nigerian history. He is a man of integrity who has proven so far that he cannot be co-opted. President Jonathan deserves some credits since he largely left INEC alone to perform their duty without interference unlike his predecessor. Jonathan stated that his presidential aspiration is not worth any person’s life which is refreshing to hear from a Nigerian politician.
Most Nigerians at home and abroad hived a big sign of relief that Nigeria have done what the world thought she is incapable of doing, conducting relatively free and fair election. The mood of optimism by Nigerians and foreign countries brought about by the successful election turned gloomy and apprehensive as rioters, thugs and miscreants went on a rampage in parts of the northern Nigeria because their candidate, General Buhari (CPC) candidate lost to President Jonathan. Homes of leading northern traditional rulers and politicians who are members or perceived PDP sympathizers was torched and razed to the ground. Scores of people were killed including some Christians. Affected states so far are: Kaduna, Katsina, Gombe, Bauchi, Kano, Adamawa, Borno and Niger. Incidentally, Buhari won all the listed states except Adamawa. These rioters and ignoramuses have no concept of democracy, that majority wins election as stipulated by the Nigerian constitution. Their anger is that the rest of the country did not share their view that their candidate, General Buhari is the best. They alleged rigging based on rumors as the reason for their candidate loss. They want to hold the country hostage. They are dead wrong and will fail in their effort to intimidate Nigerians who worked so hard to make these elections successful.
The most disappointing aspect of the mayhem going on in the north is that their candidate, General Buhari, tossed fuel into the fire by alleging that the election was rigged in the South-South and Southeast which are President Jonathan’s stronghold just like North western parts of Nigeria are Buhari’s stronghold. Beside, Jonathan is an incumbent which matters in a country like Nigeria. Jonathan campaigned heavily in Southeast while Buhari hardly campaigned there. He is just not popular in South South and Southeast because people over there perceive him to be too strong-willed and uncompromising. Perception of excessive rigidity by a presidential candidate from any region in a diverse country like Nigeria is a negative attribute and a hindrance. Widespread acceptability of a rigid politician in a diverse country, like Nigeria, is limited. Unfortunately for Buhari, he was labeled as a religious extremist years ago, and that label stuck and has dogged him ever since. Majority of Nigerians regard him as honest but his rigidity turns people off in parts of the country. He lost by wide margin and should have toed the path of honor by conceding the election to Jonathan. His popularity would have surged had he conceded the election in a timely manner and then denounce the crazy rioters in a strong term. My thinking is he will be diminished by his conduct after this election, he may never recover from it just like Obasanjo who never recovered from his third term pursuit. My candidate was Nuhu Ribadu. I was equally disposed to Buhari or Jonathan win. Both of them would have been acceptable to me.
What are the lessons from the election conducted so far?
- Nigerians have proven that they are capable of conducting free and fair election.
- Some Nigerians are yet to grasp the concept of democracy, that majority wins and the choice of Nigerians must be respected.
- Candidate perceived as level headed and non-threatening is more than likely to be accepted in most parts of Nigeria diverse regions. President Jonathan has that attribute.
- The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) performed well but they need to continuously improve and update their logistics around the country.
- Even though INEC performed well, I still think that chairman of the electoral commission needs to be chosen by independent body such as National Judicial Commission or any other independent body. President Jonathan left INEC alone to do their job, but another president may not be as honest as Jonathan. Former president, Olusegun Obasanjo and former INEC Chairman, Professor Maurice Iwu proved my point in 2007 election which was so flawed and universally condemned at home and abroad.
- If Nigerians can successfully conduct another free and fair presidential, governorship, National and State Assembly elections, free and fair election will become the rule rather than exception.
- No person gets prosecuted after these riots and is probably why it happens over and over. The law must be enforced and perpetrators must be prosecuted and punished so others will know that violence have consequences.
The 6 geopolitical zones in Nigeria
- North-Central – Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, and Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
- North-Eastern – Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe.
- North-Western – Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara.
- South-Eastern – Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo.
- South-South – Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.
- South-Western – Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo.