Here we go again.  Just when you thought that constitutional amendment to extend tenure of presidents and governors have been shelved by the president because of the outcry and protest by Nigerians, new information indicates that President Jonathan have repackaged and sweetened the deal so his new gambit will gain wider appeal to scale through the national and state legislatures.  It is clear that his old proposal of 6-year single tenure for president and governors was doomed and dead on arrival in the state and national legislature.

The sweetener in the coming proposal will ensure that Nigerian constitution will be amended to recognize the six geopolitical zones as political entities, ensure 7-year single tenure for president and governors, rotation of the office of president between the six-geopolitical zones, rotation of the office of governors between the three senatorial zones of every state, and finally ensure that senators, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly members get 6-year indefinite renewable tenure.

The president is banking that the new proposal have enough incentives for the political operatives who have the power to make it a reality irrespective of what Nigerian masses think or want.  The thinking is that this proposal will leave national assembly members divided, that various factions in the state and national legislatures will see one incentive or the other in the bill to support the amendment.

I must confess that as an Igbo man, whose brethrens have faced political discrimination since the end of the civil war in 1970 will likely benefit from the rotational presidency arrangements, all things been equal.  Unfortunately, all things are not equal and will never be. That is why I have consistently opposed rotational governorship or presidency or use of ethnicity, region, religion, language, race as basis of selecting presidential and governorship candidates.  A good, honorable, competent president or governor will end up lifting most or all segments of the population regardless of his or her state of origin or group affiliation.

Lets examine the pros and cons of the latest proposal:

Pros:

1). 7-year single tenure for presidents and governors will make rotational presidency and governorship easier to implement across the six geo-political zones compared to our current 4-year two- term system.

2). 7-Year single tenure will mean that election will be held across Nigeria for presidents and governor every 7 years instead of every 4 years which will nearly save close to half of the money we currently spend on election for the two offices.

3). 7-year single term may encourage some presidents and governors to take immediate and decisive steps on lingering political, economic and social policies they believe will benefit their state or the country in the short or long run without fear of negative backlash when they seek re-election for second term as currently exist in our constitution drafted in 1999.

4). Rotation of governorship and presidency may engender sense of fairness in minority tribes who fear they will never experience political power.  Groups who feel marginalized are unlikely to put in their best in advancing the country and preservation of her unity.

5). Renewable tenure for state and national legislatures is largely inconsequential.  It is unlikely to tip balance of power one way or the other.  The public will judge and decide whether to rehire them every 6 years as proposed.

Cons:

1). The most scary part of the single term, rotational presidency or governorship in a democratic system of government is that it discourages prospective candidates to crisscross the length and breath of the country or state to broaden their appeal to different segments of the population which is how election is won in Nigeria at present if it is free and fair.  Rotational system endangers this unique aspect of democracy by discouraging prospective candidates to garner support from all sections of the country.  For example, If it is geo-political zone A turn to produce presidential candidates for various parties, prospective candidates will concentrate all their efforts and energy in that zone, in the process neglect the other five zones.  The exclusion and neglect can lead to backlash,  unrest which can constitute serious threat to Nigerian unity and democracy.

2). Even bigger threat to Nigerian democracy and unity is the fact that when a president or governor is elected from one zone, what prevents that president or governor from diverting all federal or state resources to that zone which means the other zones will have to possible wait till their turn for meaningful government project in their area.  Remember a zone will have to wait for 35 years for second chance to wear the crown.  The other restless zones will be unhappy with the wait and may resort to unrest which may lead to instability and possible coup in-order to get rid of the system.  Anybody who knows Nigeria will understand that it is a recipe for disaster.  It will be a time bomb waiting to explode since Nigerians will never wait and see their resources diverted to one zone with impunity with the blessing of their constitution. This proposal will cause more division among Nigerians.

3). Rotational presidency will likely enshrine mediocrity in Nigerian governance.  The   pool for selecting governors and presidents will be considerably reduced to a zone at a time. Each state or the country may be forced to compromise and live with a candidate from a particular zone who may not be qualified or ill equipped for the position.

4). 7-year single tenure will give less incentives to successive presidents or governors to implement good policies and record achievements quickly so they will be rewarded with a second term.  The critical part of two tenure system is that it is in conformity with  human nature which seeks reward for good behavior.  A president or governor will be more responsive to the electorate if they know that their inability to do so will hamper their re-election prospect.

5). Consecutive 4 or 5-year two-term tenure is a self perpetuating inbuilt incentive of hard-work and reward in a democratic process which drives politicians to achieve as much as possible within the shortest possible time before seeking re-election, so they will be rewarded with a second term.  A single tenure will take away this incentive since the president or governor will not have to worry about another election.  We have seen this practice in action in United States where 4-year consecutive term have been in existence since post Franklin Roosevelt era.  It is not perfect by any means but overall, it has served American people well.

6). What happens if Nigerian electorates mistakenly elects an incompetent president or governor, that means the state or the country will be saddled with that person for seven years.  Seven years of bad leadership is eternity, it will seem and feel like a never ending nightmare.  Some leaders are narcissistic to the point of believing that their policies are correct hence criticism of their policies is regarded as personal affront and unpopular policies pursued throughout their term.

7). Corruption is likely to increase in a single tenure and rotation system due to the fact that president or governor’s constituencies will be smaller since they just have to concentrate on one zone and will not have to worry about re-election.  The twin evil (rotation and single tenure) will embolden the executives at the state and federal level  to steal as much money as possible without fear of immediate repercussion from the electorate.  Also one geopolitical zone will be so small that it will not be impossible to buy off large segment of that zone with federal or state projects or outright pay off with limitless federal or state fund.

My take on the repackaged rotation and tenure proposal.  I believe that President Goodluck Jonathan is a good man and means well but leaders sometimes do not know or fully comprehend the future implication of their policies or proposals.  Some policies or legislation can produce unintended consequences.  On the surface,  rotation system and single tenure for presidents and governors seems fair, wonderful and a panacea for Nigeria unique problem of power sharing between groups, but it is a deeply flawed proposal which constitutes a mortal threat to Nigerian unity and democracy.

Northerners (Hausa) have dominated Nigerian presidency since Nigeria gained Independence in 1960, but the northerners overall are worst off economically today compared to the western (Yoruba) or Eastern (Igbo) part of Nigeria.  This analogy shows that a region or a tribe or an ethnic group or member of a religious group will not be necessarily better off because one of their own is the president or governor.  President Barack Obama have been the United State president for close to three years but unemployment rate among Black Americans is the highest when compared to whites or Hispanics Americans.  The benefit of having one of your own in such high offices is usually symbolic.   A good leader from any region or tribe or religion will end up lifting the entire country.  If Nigeria practices democracy long enough, ethnic, tribal, regional or religious identification will gradually dissipate over time.  In few years, qualification and competence of prospective candidates will matter more in elections than above divisive criteria or classifications if real democracy is given a chance to take root in Nigeria.

A compromise of 5-year two-term tenure for governors and presidents and 5-year renewable term for senators, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly members will serve Nigeria better in the long run.  5-year two-term for the executive branch and indefinite 5-year renewable tenure for legislatures will preserve essential elements of democracy and reduce cost of elections.

4. South-Eastern | Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo.

5. South-South | Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.

6. South-Western | Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo.