Rotational presidency based on ethnicity, race, religion or region in Nigeria may sound inclusive and a way to mollify aggrieved members of various groups. Coming from the south eastern part of Nigeria dominated by the Igbos, the most marginalized ethnic group in Nigeria politics since the end of the civil war, I still disagree with rotation of the office of the presidency. Rotational presidency is limiting, ill advised and potential descent to mediocrity. It is imperative for Nigerians to come to the realization that we can only succeed if Nigerians conduct primary and general elections in a manner that will produce the most qualified and forward looking candidate. Nigeria is gradually overcoming the issue of election rigging which will ensure that the best candidate prevails after each election. Yes, a lot of Nigerians may not be able to look past ethnicity, race, religion or region when they get into the election booth, but electoral behavior of such people will change for the better with time.
Nigeria was divided into Western, Eastern and Northern region after independence. Hausa dominates the north, Yoruba dominates the west and Igbo dominates the east. The regions became the governing entity with premiers at the regional level and prime minister at the federal level with ceremonial president. The regions was later divided into 12 states. The 12 states was further divided into 36 current states headed by governors. The northern region has dominated the presidency since Nigeria independent but that has not translated into rapid development of the region when compared to the eastern and western region. There is no question that the north has made enormous progress in education and civil service sector. Northern part of Nigeria should be well developed by now if having presidents of Northerner extraction for such a long time automatically translates into economic, social or political development.
In United States, race is the dividing line. President Barack Obama became United States president 4 years ago. The first African American (black) to occupy that office. Within the past four years, unemployment among black population have remained the highest compared to whites, Hispanics or Asians population. He just won re-election for another 4 year term and the economic outlook for black Americans is unlikely to change substantially for the duration of his presidency. One can even argue that the fact that president Obama is black has tied his hands when it comes to helping black Americans. The optics of singling out blacks to help them as a group will look bad. He will be accused of racism or favoritism or both. The only acceptable way he could help blacks is to base the policy on income level which will help people of all races that fall into that income category.
Same applies to Nigeria situation with small exception. The exception is that discrimination among ethnic or regional groups in Nigeria can be blatant sometimes. I recall a situation where a teacher friend of Igbo extraction based in the northern part of Nigeria was dismissed from her position because a Hausa man, a recent graduate from Teacher’s training college wants that position. Blatant discrimination like that can be taken care off by strict enforcement of the existing laws. As Nigeria progresses, it will become more difficult for a northern or southern president or others to concentrate great portion of his or her attention on his or her region to the detriment of others. Even though the current president, Dr. Jonathan is from the south south region, it will not be out of place to speculate that what he can do for his region is limited. There is just inherent limitation on what a president can do in 4 or 8 years. State or local governments are in a better position to do a better job that will affect the populace of that region in the long run.
The most pernicious by-product of rotational presidency will be the institutionalization and codification of impunity. It will turn into a license for the president that hails from a particular region to concentrate his or her attention on that region to the detriment of others. There will be no incentive for the president to carry the rest of the regions along since their votes will not matter in his or her election or reelection assuming all parties will be mandated in such arrangement to pick presidential candidates from same region at a time.
Also, choosing a president from a particular region, religion or ethnic group based on rotation will limits the pool of qualified and visionary leaders. These can lead to chosing a mediocre as a leader.
Rotational presidency is a bad idea though it seems fair and looks good on paper. Nigerians should avoid such a trap. The best and brightest person with vision from any part of Nigeria should be chosen by political parties to contest presidential elections. He or she should get there by merit only. A good leader ends up lifting the entire nation. Nigerians should distance themselves from any president or governor advocating rotational presidency or governorship. It is short sighted and will create a horrible precedent when such habit is institutuionalized. Presidency produced by rotation will only make people from his or her region feel good, give them a sense of belonging and accomplishment. The president may build some infrastructures for his or her region which may not matter much in the long run. If democracy in Nigeria is allowed to blossom for years to come, political parties will gradually align along ideologically lines instead of ethnic, religious or regional lines. When that occurs, an Igbo, Hausa, Yoruba or people from other regions or ethnic groups will secure nomination of their parties, win elections, become president and Nigerians will hardly notice or care about the regional or ethnic affiliation of that president.