General Muhammadi Buhari is a very familiar figure in Nigerian political scene. He has extensive name recognition. Mr. Buhari has ran for president in all presidential election since civilian government was restored in 1999. He ran unsuccessfully for the office of the president in the 2003, 2007 and 2011 elections. Equally notable is that he has contested the results of all the presidential elections he participated in, claiming each time that massive fraud and vote rigging prevented him from winning. He filed petitions and asked the court after each election to declare him the winner and the courts declined each time.
I am not sure if General Buhari really believed that he won those elections. A little background of the general will be helpful. General Buhari was the 7th Head of State of Nigeria. He was in power between December 31, 1983 and August 27, 1985 after ousting democratically elected civilian president of Shehu Shagari in 1983 in a military Coup. General Ibrahim Babangida subsequently ousted General Buhari in another military coup and became 8th Nigerian head of state.
General Buhari is now 70 years old. He was born on December 17, 1942. His ethnic background is Fulani, native of Daura in Katsina State of Nigeria and his faith is Islam. He said that he was done with presidential run after losing 2011 election to current president, Goodluck Jonathan. He changed his mind recently and wanted to go at it one more time in 2015.
Realizing his ambition of ruling Nigeria one more time will be an uphill battle. He is trying to be the presidential candidate of All Progressive Congress (APC) born from the merger of three strong opposition parties, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) headed by him, Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP) and a faction of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA). Registration of APC has not been finalized but it is just a matter of time.
The problem for General Buhari is that he has an image problem especially in the southern part of Nigeria populated by Christians. He is viewed as inflexible, autocratic and uncompromising by a lot of Nigerians. Some people in the southern part of Nigeria view him as an Islamist bent on altering the secular state of Nigeria and amenable to imposition of Sharia law. It may be an unfair characterization, but perception can sometimes become reality if there is no pushback. He has tried to shake off his negative image but has been unsuccessful so far. He chose a reverend minister as his running mate in the last presidential election partly to dispel and soften his image but that did not work.
He always claim after each election that he won without acceptable documents for the courts to back up his assertion. The only conclusion that can be deduced from his actions after each election is that General Buhari some how thinks that he is more popular that he actually is. He has not taken the time to broaden his appeal across all regions of Nigeria. Northern support alone is not enough to win Nigeria presidency.
He needs to extend his appeal across all regions and find a way to reassure Nigerians that he is indeed a moderate and will be fair to all Nigerians. He has a lot of admirable qualities that he needs to sell to all the regions of Nigeria. General Buhari is probably the least corrupt politician in Nigeria today. He has occupied various positions of responsibilities in government where he had opportunity to loot Nigeria treasury if he wanted, but there is no evidence so far that he did. He has chosen to live a modest life style. General Buhari will fight corruption and indiscipline more than any other Nigerian leader before him. He will wage real war on corruption and restore law and order which will create conducive atmosphere for investment and prosperity. General Buhari knows more than any other leader how bad corruption has pauperized Nigerians. But he cannot realize his ambition if he cannot make it to the presidency. His recent criticism of President Jonathan’s declaration of state of emergency in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa states and the insinuation that that President Jonathan is waging war on the north will further alienate the southern regions and reinforce his negative image.
General Buhari need to expand his support by taking major steps to reach out to the southerners. Picking Tinubu or other southerner as his running mate may not be enough to earn the trust he will need. He should not wait for 2015 campaign to start before reaching out because Nigeria electorate do not trust politicians and expects little from their electoral promises. He needs to start traveling to all nooks and corners of Nigeria so people will get the opportunity to see him in a different light. He needs to show empathy. He needs to start showing up in churches and traditional ceremonies in the south so people will get a chance to interact with him and perhaps see in him what they have not seen before. He needs to confer one on one with ordinary citizens of all regions and forcefully condemn religious extremism in all parts of the country especially in the northern states where Boko Haram are wrecking havoc. He needs to explain his agenda to Nigerians in a clear and concise manner. He needs to explain to Nigerians what he meant by restructuring Nigeria. Reassure Nigerians that he is not planning to do away with current 36 state structure.
His contribution towards the birth of a strong opposition party is a very positive development for Nigeria. Democracy cannot succeed without strong opposition. General Buhari has admirable qualities which can help Nigeria at this critical time but he cannot accomplish that fit without taking the necessary steps to broaden his support across all regions. Late chief Obafemi Awolowo wanted to be Nigeria president but his appeal was limited to the western region populated by Yoruba ethnic group. The rest of the regions viewed him as inflexible and tribalistic. That may have been an unfair perception of Mr. Awolowo, but he never overcame it, thus never made it to the presidency. The old eastern region populated by the Igbos and northern regions populated by the Hausa’s knew that Chief Awolowo was a very smart, intelligent and capable leader based on his performance as premier of Western region but that did not matter. Late Odumegwu Ojukwu, former Biafra leader would never have won Nigerian presidency for same reason that Awolowo never made it.
Nigerians have actually established a voting pattern in presidential elections. Whenever they are given a chance to vote in a free and fair presidential election, they have chosen mild mannered and non-threatening candidate. Careful examination of elected prime minister and presidents since Nigeria independence will confirm my observation. Nigerians have elected Prime minister Tafawa Balewa with Nnamdi Azikiwe as ceremonial president, Shehu Shagari, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’dua and current president, Goodluck Jonathan. What these men have in common is that they are moderates, mild mannered and non-threatening. Former president Obasanjo do not quite fit the above attributes now that Nigerians have gotten a chance to know him better. Obasanjo was first elected president in 1999 because he was regarded as a democrat who voluntarily handed over power to the civilian president of Shehu Shagari. He appeared very reasonable and non-autocratic when he was military Head of State. Nigerians promptly turned against him when he started displaying autocratic streak during his 8 years in power. He won re-election due to the power of incumbency. Buhari is very assertive, vocal, rigid and have displayed autocratic streak when he was military Head of State which does not fit the characteristics of past elected Nigerian presidents.
The reason why Nigerians chose mild mannered and non-threatening leaders is partly due to the diversity of the country. Different ethnic groups and regions may not want a strong personality as president who may impose his or her religion or ethnic tradition on the rest of the regions. In essence, they want a cool- headed leader who will build consensus across ethnic and religious boundaries. Even Nigerian constitution demands that presidential candidate must win majority of the vote cast and garner 25% percent of the vote cast in 2/3 of the 36 states. That means one has to have wide appeal to win free and fair presidential election in Nigeria. For now, General Buhari’s appeal is limited to the northern parts of Nigeria which makes his presidential ambition an up-hill battle. He may not have enough time to turn things around.