The naivete of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) top officials with regard to their erstwhile faction, new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP) is surprising considering the fact that they are suppose to be political pros schooled in the art of political brinkmanship. 5 out of the 7 nPDP governors finally defected to All Progressive Congress (APC) recently. The remaining two governors while saying that they remain member of PDP are nonetheless coy on their future plans.
There is no doubt that that these governors have been disillusioned with PDP for a long time for various reasons. Some of their grievances stems from national party officials meddling in their state affairs which in effect dilutes their power as head of the party and government in their states. Why are the national party officials and federal cabinets continually tries to carve out power base in their various states which usually lead to friction between them and the sitting governors. On the other hand, some state governors wants total power in their states to do whatever they wish which is also unreasonable. Politics is the act of compromise. Some of the governors do not even want any check on their power at all and often feel entitled to use state finance any how including converting it into private fund.
Jigawa state governor, Sule Lamido is even accusing President Jonathan of arresting his sons for political reasons even though there is evidence that his sons may have laundered money which the courts will decide at a later date. Some of the former new PDP governors are not happy that President Jonathan wants to run for reelection after promising that he will not run again which is a legitimate grievance. Some of them feel strongly that Nigeria presidency should return to the north.
My surprise is that I am surprise that PDP official did not know in advance that factionalization of their party at the national level is in the making. I figured out from the day nPDP members walked out on president Jonathan and other PDP officials at the Eagle square during PDP convention that their action was not spontaneous. It was planned and executed flawlessly. They could not do what they did without thinking it through. They know that the possible repercussion may result in expulsion from PDP. Nigerian constitution states that they have to be a faction or crises in a party before such defection can take place. Failure to have a faction may result in their sits being declared vacant.
PDP appears to live in a bubble and thinks that nobody of significance will contemplate defecting to another party. They console themselves by proclaiming their party as the largest party in Africa. That may be the case but political parties are made of people who can be unpredictable. All along, the former nPDP members were bidding their time and just looking for the right time to make their move to the opposition. It is a matter of time before the remaining two governors, Sule Lamido of Jigawa and Babangida Aliyu of Niger state will make their move.
The most negative impact of this defection on PDP is that these governors already know that most of their state and national legislatures will follow them to the new party. They will not risk impeachment if they think their state legislatures are not with them. We are going to see mass defection of the state and national legislatures from PDP to APC pretty soon. Their action may result in PDP becoming the minority party in some states and national legislatures.
Is this type of defection good for Nigeria in the long run? The answer is yes and no. If the defection was prompted by principle and lack of internal democracy in PDP, it will be good for Nigeria since it will demonstrate that some Nigerian politicians have principles, moral character and commitments to the rule of law which will improve the general welfare of Nigerians. If the defections was done for selfish reasons, that will be bad for Nigerians and democracy because the party they defected to will not be able to govern effectively after since they have already compromised their principles, morality and souls as a price they had to pay to lure them into their fold. Nigeria will easily see through it if that is the case. I am not sure if poaching is the best way to enlarge a political party. The voters may not necessarily follow a defector to the new party. In the long run, party affiliations make little or no difference. What matters in the long run is performance of the governor and president while in office. If they do well, they will be rewarded with reelection if the election is free and fair.