Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced yesterday, February 7, 2015 that Presidential, senatorial and House of Representative elections scheduled for February 14, has been postponed to March 28. Also, the gubernatorial and state’s Houses of Assembly election originally scheduled for March 28, was pushed back to April 11. These postponements are highly unprecedented and disappointing but understandable. I have argued against the postponement of these elections in the past, but have changed my stance after watching events leading up to this election.
I disagree that the principal reason for the postponement of the election is due to the security situation in the northeastern part of Nigeria where Boko Haram are on a rampage. The security situation in Nigeria has not changed much within the past couple of weeks. As a matter of fact, the security situation in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe have actually improved. The coalition forces which consists of Nigeria, Niger and Cameroun forces has Boko Haram on the run. It will be understandable if the federal government is asking for more time so they can sustain the momentum started by the coalition forces.
It is true that the situation in the northeastern states is not conducive for a fair election due to the disenfranchisement of displaced people from Boko Haram occupied areas and safety of the election officers. One can be assured that Boko Haram will not sit quiet on Election Day since they despise democracy in the first place. One does not have to be a rocket scientist to know that they will try to unleash unimaginable violence on the election day if they are not further contained. So postponing election for few weeks to further contain this bloodthirsty organization before conducting election is not totally out of place. However, I worry about the propaganda coup Boko Haram will reap from the postponement. Boko Haram will be emboldened if they get the impression that they can hold Nigeria to ransom as a result of the federal government statement that the postponement of the election is due to their actions.
I believe that the principal reason for postponement of February 14 election is due to INEC dismal performance in distribution of Permanent Voters Card (PVC), and their insistency that only voters with PVC will be allowed to vote. PVC has been distributed so far to a little over 50 percent of eligible voters. Free, fair and credible election cannot be held when close to 50 percent of eligible voters cannot not secure PVC. Nigerian voters take their civic duty of voting seriously, and cannot stomach or accept an election outcome with even 30 to 40 percent of disenfranchised voters. Nigeria nation is somewhat fragile with division along ethnic and religious lines which requires a caution when dealing with an explosive issue like election. Airing on the side of caution is preferable to massive after election violence which may follow, if large segment of the population feels that they were deliberately disenfranchised. I thought initially that PVC card was available, that some Nigerians failed to use the opportunity to get the cards which can be correctly construed as eligible voters choosing not to participate in an election. However, it now turned out that some eligible voters want the card but the cards are unavailable.
I will not rule out the possibility that a minor reason for postponement of the election is the momentum being enjoyed by the opposition, All Progressive Congress (APC). The wind have clearly been on their back since the last few weeks of the campaign. It is questionable if that momentum would have carried them over to the finish line if the election was held as originally scheduled. However, this postponement may blunt that momentum which is not fair to APC. President Jonathan’s failure to wage aggressive war on corruption and Boko Haram insecurity have crowded out his economic achievements. President Jonathan’s economic policies which centers on privatization of major industries is the correct economic policy for Nigeria in the long run. Nigerians will not see the full benefit of his privatization effort in the short run, but will benefit from it in the long run. Centralization of Nigeria economy since 1960 independence have ruin Nigeria industries and overall economy. The government owned corporations and industries such as NEPA, NITEL, refineries etc. have turned into cesspool of corruption that has overtime infected all area of Nigeria life. Privatization of these corporations and industries is the best thing for Nigeria economy in the long run. Look at what telecommunication privatization by previous administration has done for Nigeria.
All things considered, postponement of the election for six more weeks is the right call by INEC. All Nigerians should support this move and get ready for March 28 and April 11, so nobody will complain of disenfranchisement after election. Whoever emerges as winner should win fair and square. Six week postponement will give INEC enough time to achieve 100 percent distribution of PVC to all eligible voters who wants it. Any attempt by INEC or the federal government to postpone the election again will fail. It will ruin the reputation of INEC and the federal government. However, I think President Jonathan knows better and will not allow that to happen under his watch. Past attempt to tamper with election in Nigeria by past leaders have neither benefitted or ended well for the leader or Nigerians.