What a week in Nigerian Political scene. Senate President along with three governors, 15 Senators and 37 members of the House of Representative defected to the opposition parties. Majority of the defectors pitched their tent with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the rest with two other smaller parties. The defections and counter defections by political and non-political office holders have scrambled Nigerian political equation. Who could have imagined that a Sokoto State sitting governor with lever of power could defect to PDP from All Progressive Congress (APC). Sokoto state is a stronghold of president Buhari. The idea that a governor of Sokoto state could take this action only shows how far president Buhari’s electoral fortune has dissipated. His electoral fortune has clearly taken a turn for the worst. Senate President, Olusola Saraki’s defection is not too much of a surprise. It is apparent that he has not felt comfortable in the ruling party (APC). APC has done all it can to remove or diminish him since he got senators from the opposition party along with minority of the senators in his party to elect him the senate president and his deputy from the opposition party (PDP).
What is the implication of this type of unprecedented political maneuver before a very important presidential election. Make no mistake about it, 2019 presidential election is crucial for Nigeria. It will largely be a referendum on President Buhari and the ruling party. President Buhari has recorded some achievements such as Single Treasury Account, stabilization of Naira rates against foreign currencies and some other achievements but Nigerians have not seen major improvement in their life since APC came to power. Nigeria is out of recession, but Nigerians are not feeling it. The worst aspect of President Buhari’s leadership is his distance from Nigerian citizens. Most Nigerian do not feel that he understands their problems. His lopsided political appointments in key government positions is not helping matters at all. Prior to the last presidential election, he won, Nigerians thought he is incorruptible and will fight corruption to a stand still but that is not what they are seeing since he became president.
Most Nigerians now thinks that his war on corruption has turned into war on his political opponents and opposition parties. The public feels that corruption prosecutions by EFCC in the executive branch is selective because the public continually point out that a lot of people in the president Buhari’s cabinet are corrupt and nothing no investigation or prosecution has taken place. His inability to obey court orders has tarnished his image as a democrat. Former National Security Adviser, Mr. Dasuki has been granted bail six times but President Buhari has so far refused to release him. Court has demanded that his government produce leader of the Shiite religious sect in Nigeria, El Zakzaky but he has repeatedly ignored such orders. Leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) Mr. Kanu’s whereabout is unknown in a supposedly democratic country he is presiding on. Attempt by the police under president Buhari to prevent the senate president and his deputy from making it to the senate chamber recently so his party can impeach and removed the senate president and his deputy has further cemented Nigerian’s perception that he is not fighting corruption, but rather using the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) and the police to prosecute his political opponents which has tarnished EFCC and Nigerian police image.
The final straw for most Nigerians is the insecurity in Nigeria today and President’s inability to do anything about it. Killings in different parts of Nigeria has surpassed what we have seen in the past. Inability of the police under his command to arrest and prosecute the herdsmen who are doing most of the killing in a very barbaric way has basically ruined his law and order reputation and portray him fairly or unfairly as sympathetic to the Herdsmen.
The result of the latest political development in Nigeria suggests that President Buhari may be a one term president. Things is not looking good for him. He has lost North Central states and cannot win any South Eastern and South South States. He may have a better showing in Edo state. He is unlikely to win all South Western States and may even lose some states in the North Eastern part of the country. However, PDP have yet to nominate their presidential candidates. You can not beat somebody with nobody. The type of candidate PDP nominates will be the final determinant of president Buhari’s chances of getting re-elected.
Advise for all Nigerian political parties, switch from party convention to direct primaries in-order to strengthen internal democracy within the party so whoever emerges as candidate for any office will be acceptable to most of the party members. It will reduce incidence of factionalization and subsequent decamping of aggrieved members to other political parties. Governors have undue influence in their respective states because of convention system of nomination of candidates in their party primaries. Some of these governors practically push out sitting senators, House of Representative members and members of state legislatures because they control state party machinery which they populate with their loyalist who does whatever they are told to do when voting in party conventions.
State Independent Electoral Commission should either be reformed to be more independent by moving them under independent body or be scrapped and replaced by Independent National Electoral commission (INEC). It is outrageous how state governors have corrupted and mismanaged state electoral commissions. Local government chairman election they conduct from time to time is nothing but a charm. Governor in many states normally found a way to win all chairmanship elections even when it is obvious that that such a feat is impossible. Direct primaries by major political parties should be conducted by reformed state electoral commission or INEC.