Nigeria have never had it this bad since the civil war. It seems like everything that could go wrong is going wrong. Kidnaping, banditry, insurgence, secession, ethnic and religious strife is happening across the country. They are numerous reasons for what is going on in Nigeria today. Bad leadership has been constant in Nigeria and ordinary Nigerians are bearing the blunt of it.
Doing same thing over and over and expecting a different result is a definition of insanity. Centralized Nigerian police structure is a failure. There is no way insecurity in Nigeria can be effectively tackled without decentralized police force. State governors must be allowed to establish state police force. State governors know their state more than the federal government police force. Effective policing requires intelligence gathering. Residence of each state are unlikely to trust federal police enough to give them the information they need. They are usually viewed with suspicion and occupier in some cases partly because of their brutal and corrupt practices.
4th tier of government structure should be established by allowing each community to incorporate their town into township government and be allowed to establish community police if they so desire. Local government Areas should establish local government Area police as well. No criminal can evade community, local government, and state police. Federal police force can still provide back up to state police when needed. Again, insecurity in Nigeria will never be solved without decentralization of Nigeria police structure. It is how it is done in advanced countries. It is how every square mile of United States is protected. Nigeria can do the same and get similar result. There are not better than us. Community, Local Government, and state residence cannot go and kill their own police as we are seeing today. People do not kill their own. They are doing it now in various states because they do not have that sense of kinship with the federal police force. A country where 200 to 300 students are kidnapped just like that have no functional police force.
Criminal activities committed for material goods is one thing but separatist activities especially what is going on in the Southeast and other parts of Nigeria is a profoundly serious situation that may eventually lead to the collapse and breakup of Nigeria as we know it. What Nigerians do not seem to realize is how easy it is for a country that has been intact for centuries to collapse and cease to exist within short period of time. Former Soviet Union is a typical example. Former superpower just collapsed and disintegrated within days. Yugoslavia is another example. What is now clear is that using force to preserve a country no longer works as before. In the Northeastern part of Nigeria, Boko Haram and Islamic State of West African province has been waging a brutal insurgency to establish Islamic state. The two group have demonstrated that rag tag groups can pin down the almighty Nigerian army down for years just like Taliban pinned down former Soviet Union and United States army for years. Southern Sudan successfully broke away from Sudan just like Eritrea successfully broke away from Ethiopia. Using force to preserve any country’s territorial integrity no longer works.
When Scottish, Wales and Northern Ireland started agitation, the United Kingdom Parliament devolved power and created separate executive and legislative body for those areas which empowered them and quell their agitation. There is still some rumbling in Scotland for full independence due to exit of United Kingdom from European Union, but it appears to have calmed down. In Nigeria, each state has their own executive and legislative body, but the state judiciary and legislative branches have not fully exerted their independence from the executive branch. Equity, fairness, and justice is lacking in Nigeria. Northern part of the country has held the office of Nigerian presidency longer than the Southern parts of Nigeria combined and more. Southeastern part of Nigeria inhabited by Igbos have only held ceremonial presidency which had no power.
What is happening in Southeast is that the residence of the zone is saying that they have had it, that they are tired of being marginalized considering that they are one of the three major tribe in Nigeria. Majority of Igbos in the Southeast prefer to remain in a United Nigeria if they will be equity and fairness towards them. They want devolution of power to the states and president of Southeastern extraction so they will feel that there is a place for them in Nigeria. Presidency rarely does much for the region the president hail from. It only gives that region where the presidency hails from a sense of belonging and pride. Southeastern region needs that now in-order to quell the restlessness in the region. They believe that they have a lot to contribute to the development of Nigeria. Executive power is so centralized in Nigeria that people are looking for ways to free themselves from the throat of the central government. Nnamdi Kanu is far gone. He will not settle for anything less than independent Biafra. Sunday Adeyemo, aka Sunday Igboho from the Western part of Nigeria is far gone to some extent. Nigerian government need to search for ways to diminish Nnamdi Kanu’s support. He is capitalizing on the grievances and marginalization of the Igbos in Nigeria. It is the oxygen that is feeding his movement. Most Southeasterners do not know who is the unknown gunmen. Some actually believe that the so called unknown gunmen are federal government agents who are killing and destroying properties and using it as a pretext to to kill Igbos.
What has been so surprising is President Buhari’s reaction to all these issues and his inappropriate reference to the genocidal civil war and a threat to thread similar path to quell the current agitation. He thinks that issuing threat or using force will solve the problem. I have heard President Buhari threaten Boko Haram and said that he will deal with them, but Boko Haram is still alive, bolder and causing mayhem as usual. I have heard president Buhari threaten bandits and kidnapper in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna and his home state of Katsina and other northern states but the situation there have gotten worst not better. Nobody has a magic wand that will take care of the unfortunate situation Nigeria is in now. Today’s world is different from the past decades when use of force is the order of the day. International community will not sit ideally and allow any leader to unleash force on their citizen without consequences especially when it comes to the Igbos in Nigeria where western nations feels that they did not do enough to help safeguard Igbo lives and properties during the brutal civil war. The International Criminal Court (ICC) who are itching to express their displeasure on Nigerian leaders will quickly sprang into action if any Nigerian government commit atrocities in the name of preserving territorial integrity of Nigeria. It is the reason the three retired service chiefs were quickly designated as ambassadors after their retirement so they will have immunity from prosecution from the International Criminal court. Recent Twitter ban in Nigeria by President Buhari is doing an incalculable harm to Nigerian image and prospect around the world. Freedom of press is a major element among many used to determine if a country is democratic or not, which affects future investments decisions and general economic outlook of that country. Nigeria is already ranked as one of the countries in the World with the harshest economic environment to do business.
What should Nigerian government do to solve the insecurity, agitation for independence that is ravaging and causing mayhem in Nigeria and improve her economic outlook at the same time?
What is clear and obvious is that use of force or threat of using force will not work. It will even exacerbate the ugly situation Nigeria is in now. Nigerian government need to come up with different approach to win the trust and confidence of various ethnic groups that made up Nigeria by giving them hope and a sense of belonging, and assurance that every group in Nigeria will be treated equally. The greatest gift President Buhari can give to Nigerian is to build a durable democratic institution which will set Nigeria on the right course now and after his generation are all gone from the mother earth. Nigerians from all ethnic groups, tribes and zones must be made to feel that they have a stake in Nigeria. President Buhari’s assumption that the current turmoil in Nigeria is caused by people who want to ruin his administration is a mistaken assumption. It reminds me of former President Jonathan who made the same assumption after Boko Haram kidnapped 200 to 300 schoolgirls at Chibok. Both analogies are wrong. The grievance by various groups in Nigeria precedes both administrations. They have been building up for years.
The federal government should start this process by getting actively involved in the ongoing constitutional amendment and use this opportunity to make far reaching structural changes in the Nigerian constitution that will satisfy the yearning of most of the 6 geo-political regions that make up Nigeria.
1. The federal government should embark on devolution of power from the federal to the State, Local government Areas and Community governments. As I stated before, 4th tier of government should be constitutionally created to bring governance to various communities. This will empower communities around the country and give them the opportunity to take their destiny into their hands. Government that usually have the greatest impact on people is the government that is closest to them.
2. The federal government should include establishment of the State Police force in the ongoing constitutional amendment. State police force is necessary since the governors knows more about their states than the federal police force. State police force will have the confidence of the residents of their state compared to the federal police force. Local government and community policing should also be allowed. Establishing layers of police force will effectively bring security to various states and communities. Federal police can remain as back up when needed. It is the only way to bring the current security challenge under control.
3. Rotational presidency and vice presidency among the 6 political zone should be included in the constitutional amendment and implemented. Rotation of president and vice president is not the best way to operate a democratic system of government, but it is the best option among the not so good options in Nigeria. It is a bitter pill we must all swallow to preserve Nigerian unity. Two 4-year term for each zone. Eight years for one zone in the South and the eight years for another zone in the north and vice versa. Northwest could be grouped with Southwest, Northeast with Southeast, North Central with South South. When a zone grouped together provides the president, the other will provide the vice president and vice versa. All political parties must be required to choose their presidential and vice-presidential candidates from the designated zones in each election cycle. Each geopolitical zone in Nigeria has able and competent people that can lead Nigeria. Two 4-year term is important in-order to provide incentive for the elected president in each zone to perform and carry the rest of the country along so he or she can be reelected.
5 or 6-year single term system will encourage impunity since the president will not care if the rest of the country agree with him or her. Nigeria from other zones can easily spot and shun a political party who presents a tribalistic candidate. Nigerian can easily vote for another party in the zone if the president in power fails to carry the rest of the country along by voting for another party after first 4- year term. Some will argue that it will encourage impunity by allowing the president to allocate all social amenities in their zone, but the House of Representative and the senate will be there to check the power of that president. The rotational presidency and vice presidency could be authorized for only 96 years after which it will automatically expire. After 96 years, Nigerians will be so economically, politically, socially, and intellectually integrated that rotation may no longer be necessary. Intermarriages, socialization which will take place naturally which will eventually get the country there. Successive generation could re-authorize rotation if they think it is still needed. Rotation will give people hope, certainty and sense of belonging even though it will take a while before the two offices rotates around. No region of Nigeria will complain of inequality and marginalization anymore thereafter. Implementation of the rotational presidency and vice presidency will effectively take away the argument of the independence agitators and render them and their remaining followers impotent. If they insist on carrying on. You will see their ethnic brethren desert or even deal with them.
4. The amended constitution should mandate that the 6 highest offices in the executive branch should be allocated to the six geopolitical zone after each election. The president and vice president who won election must pick the 4-remaining position from the four remaining zones. The four other positions should be Chief of Staff, secretary to the federal government, head of Civil Service and National security adviser. This should work the same way the president is mandated by the constitution to pick minister from each state.
5. The constitution should mandate the six highest position in the federal legislative branch to be allocated to the six geopolitical zone after each election namely the senate president, Speaker of the House of Representative, Majority Leader in both Houses, Minority Leader in both houses, Majority and Minority Whip. This will ensure that all zones are represented after each election.
6. The Federal Character Commission should be given power in the amended Constitution to sue the executive branch, Legislative branch, and the Judicial branch whenever they see instances where federal character was not reflected in employment in any ministry, department, and Agencies without imposing quota. Offending Ministry, Department and Agencies should face daily fine until they comply, or the court will do it for them.
7. The president should be barred from appointing INEC and EFCC chairman to ensure neutrality so they cannot exempt themselves from the reach of both bodies and to make sure that the Chairmen of both institutions do not favor the person who appointed them. Appointment for the two positions should be constituted the same way Nigerian Judiciary Commission selects three Judges for the president to select one and forward to the Senate for approval.
8. Federal government should not pursue the idea of regional government or regional parliament like some Nigerians are proposing. Creation of regional government in 1960 after Independence from Britain was the original sin of Nigerian governing structure. It is the reason why Nigerians still view themselves as members of ethnic or tribal group instead of members of a nation called Nigeria. Some wants to go back to their ethnic enclave called region and perpetuate their ethnic jingoism and division. Regional governance should remain discarded for Nigeria to move forward. Beside, Nigeria is far more developed under the current state governing structure compared to the time we had regions. State have developed places that regional government never did. Developments that has sprouted in all state capitals and major cities within each state is huge.
Nigeria do not need another layer of bureaucracy on top of the state government. The division we currently see at the national level will simply move the to regional government level since the regional government will be made of different tribes as well. Similar tribal conflict will tear those regions apart. Even some states governments have resorted to the rotation of the state governorship among the three senatorial zones in-order to maintain peace and keep residence of the state happy and ensure equity. Nigerian need grass root government at the community, Local government, and State level more than ever since government closer to people usually have more impact on the lives of the resident of the area. Nigeria must not go back to regional governance.
9. Revenue allocation must continue for another 50 years or more so states can develop another source of income. Most states cannot survive without it. It takes time to develop internal revenue source. Even regional governments cannot survive without it. Any Nigerian with basic knowledge of economics knows that. All you need to find out is to look at the current internal generated revenue from each state.
10. Decentralize and sell off government own enterprises because Nigerian government have demonstrated since 1960 that they are incapable of managing any enterprises. Former Nigerian railway and airways was ran into the ground, Port Harcourt and Kaduna refinery is only operating at 5 percent or less capacity despite billions of dollars that was poured into it. Former commercial banks owned by the government was ran into the ground, National Electricity Power Authority which metamorphosed into Power Holding company was ran into the ground. Textile industries was ran into the ground. Cocoa and groundnut board was ran into the ground. Steel mill was ran into the ground. Cement production companies was also ran into the ground by various government agencies that was managing them. Corruption, mismanagement, and nepotism was the primary culprit in the demise of these companies.
When cement, banking and Telecommunication sector was deregulated and private companies took over these companies, the same companies came back to life and are now booming. Nigerians are breathlessly waiting for the completion of Dangote refinery because of the failure of the government built and managed refineries. Nigerian governments must not be allowed to acquire more than 10 percent stake in any federal, state, or local government enterprise. Their job should only be to create enabling environment for business to thrive by deregulation, provision of security, roads, airport, and other social amenities. I must state that failure of government in managing businesses enterprises is not only limited to Nigeria, but also around the world. United States was built by private enterprises not government enterprises.
11. Freedom of any Nigerian to move around and settle in any part of the country must never be abridged. However, herding and grazing cattle that destroy farmers crops around the country is not freedom of movement. Those cattle should be in ranches and feed with grass and hays. Movement of citizens from one part of the country to another is the best way to dispel conspiracy theories among different tribes in Nigeria. Travel is the greatest educational experience one can have since one will see and judge things and other people by themselves.
If the above recommendations are included in the Nigerian constitution, stability will return to Nigeria. Nigerians needs to know for certain that all zones and all sections of the population are represented at the federal level after each presidential election and federal legislative election. It will be a definition of ultimate fairness and equity. Issue of marginalization will disappear, and the northerners will no longer be accused of monopolizing power or have a hidden agenda to Islamize Nigeria. Independence agitator will be left in the cold and their support will evaporate into the thin air. Collapse and disintegration of Nigeria, the largest African nation in the world will be a betrayal of our forefathers, Africans at home and in diaspora, and African descendants around the World who have suffered so much by been relegated to the bottom of the rudder wherever they inhabit will be hugely affected by Nigerian breakup. People who discriminated and still discriminate against Africans and people of African descends around the world do not care if you are Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba, South African, Ethiopia, Somalian etc., they only see the color of your skin. Africans and their descendants cannot be fully accorded the respect they deserve until Africans which Nigeria comprises the largest part of, successfully develops most of their continent which will demonstrate that they can do what other continents such as Asians are currently doing.
So, fighting among ourselves is the most obnoxious and irresponsible thing we can do. We are in effect justifying their negative and misguided perception about Africa and Africans. Africans and their descendants all want a successful Nigeria that will make them proud. The world will look at us and say that Africans are cursed if Nigeria breaks up. Nigeria should set example by building institutions that we can pass on to the next generation. Issuing threat to wish away structural imbalances in Nigeria constitution is a bad way to go about it. We need to modify United States Constitution we adopted to suit our peculiar situation. The president should spearhead this constitutional amendment that is taking place and incorporate overdue changes in-order to keep the country together. Great leaders are people who gets ahead of developing dangerous situations before they metastasized. People who say that the present constitution is a fraud do not know what they are talking about. No constitution is perfect, that is why they are continuously amended to make it more perfect. This constitution has done wonders for United States. It is the work of the legislature to keep updating and amending the constitution when necessary. Constitutional amendment hearing is going on around Nigeria and various group are recommending what they want to see in the constitutional amendment. Everybody should participate to make Nigerian constitution more perfect.