Landslide victory of President Goodluck Jonathan, current Nigerian president in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) primary held on January 13, 2011 is an indication that Nigerian democracy project is not hopeless. In fact, the evolution of democratic process in Nigeria is on the right track despite some false starts in this and prior republics. The president polled 2763 votes out of 3507 votes to defeat former vice president, Atiku Abubakar who came a distant second with 805 votes. In third place was Sarah Jibril who garnered one vote.
More important is the states President Jonathan won. As expected, he won Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, his home state, Cross-Rivers, Rivers, Delta and Edo states with overwhelming margins. He won southeastern states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo with similar margins as in the South South region. He won the western states of Lagos, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo with what can only be described as a landslide.
President Jonathan had more challenge in the northern regions.
| Johnathan | Atiku | |
| Benue State | 82% | 17% |
| Borno | 55% | 44% |
| Bauchi | 51% | 48% |
| Gombe | 75% | 24% |
| Jigawa | 93% | 6% |
| Kaduna | 66% | 33% |
| Katsina | 93% | 6% |
| Kogi | 84% | 22% |
| Kwara | 69% | 29% |
| Nassarawa | 86% | 13% |
| Plateau | 93% | 6% |
| Taraba | 79% | 20% |
| Yobe | 59% | 40% |
| Federal Capital Territory | 88% | 11% |
Conversely, Former vice president, Atiku Abubakar won by a land slide in the States of Kano, by 82% to 17%; Niger 85% to 14%; Sokoto 72% to 27% and Zamfara by a whopping 90% to 9% percent. The margin is much closer in Kebbi where Atiku won by 57% to 42%.
What is remarkable about Jonathan’s margin of victory is that he won in most of the northern states in spite of Atku’s ethnic, religious and regional appeal via the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) headed by Adamu Ciroma. One may recall that on Monday, November 22, 2010 the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) led by Adamu Ciroma announced former vice president, Atiku Abubakar as the consensus candidate of the north to run against Jonathan in the Peoples Democratic Party primary. A scheme designed to marginalize and incite the north against Jonathan. I commented in my earlier article that this arrangement is inimical to the unity and peaceful coexistence of Nigeria.
I am glad that members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the largest political organization in Nigeria soundly rejected this religious and ethnic appeal disguised as maintaining zoning or presidential rotation. President Jonathan clearly has a lot of work to do in the states he performed poorly. He is doing the right thing by reaching out to Atiku, Ibrahim Babangida, Mohammed Gusau and Adamu Ciroma’s group to mend fences before the general election. It shows political maturity on President Jonathan’s part. The coming presidential election is shaping up as one of the most competitive between the main actors in the person of President Jonathan of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Nuhu Ribadu of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and Mohammedu Buhari of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Either of them can win the coming general election.
The People Democratic Party primary is not without its fault. The governors of each state held unprecedented sway over their state delegates. Governors of some states hold so much power over their state’s political party machine that democracy has not actually taken root at the state and local level because of their inability to let their state’s Houses of Assemblies and Local Government Areas to assert their independence. They also secured their various tickets for re-election using their overwhelming political machine. The term-limited governors even went as far as selecting their protégé to stand for governorship election.
Their high handedness towards their party delegates is not good for democracy. Some of the governors even single-handedly through their vast state political machine denied tickets to members of the national assembly seeking re-election because they fell out with them. This overbearing attitude of the governors in getting their state delegates to vote for Jonathan may instill over-confidence in PDP that the primary outcome will carry over to the general election. He may think that the primary win is a reflection of Nigerian electorate since PDP is the largest party in Nigeria. Any of the three major candidates can win April 2011 presidential election in a fair and free election.
Nigerian democracy is crawling along with some difficulties. The great thing about democracy is that it is a self-cleansing process. As soon as Nigeria starts conducting free and fair elections, elected officers will start being responsive and accountable to the electorates which will mean less corruption, more infrastructures at the federal, state and local level. Other dividends of democracy will flow to the electorate as well. Nigerians must have patience and stick to this meandering, exhaustive and burdensome process called democracy because there is no better system out there as most Nigerians can attest to decades of successive failed military regimes which left Nigeria in coma.